Thursday, December 8, 2011

Yankee Group: Diameter Routing Takes off - $212M Market in 2015

December is here, and it’s time for the best analysts to publish their New Year predictions. Among them is the Yankee group, with its "2012 Mobility Predictions: A Year of Living Dangerously" (download from here).

Diameter routing made it to the Yankee's list - "Diameter signaling is taking off. Yankee Group has seen significant request for proposal/request for information (RFP/RFI) activity and expects spending on IP-based Diameter signaling to more than double between 2011 and 2012—growing from U.S.$22 million to U.S.$45 million. And overall, we see the market mushrooming to U.S.$212 million in 2015, for a whopping CAGR of 57.2 percent".

This year, Tekelec said it received orders of $33M (here) for its Diameter router product (DSR). The orders were received in October, so most of it will probably not make it for 2011 revenues. Note that analysts see a $1.1-1.6B market for PCRF (here), for which Diameter routing is kind of an infrastructure element, on 2015 (Yankee forecasts $1.4B).

Yankee already names winners and losers for this young market. They list Acme Packet, Traffix Systems, Tekelec and Openet as "winners" and Tekelec and NSN as Losers (yes. Tekelec is on both lists. Sorry for the inconvenience). See my Diameter Routing product list here with links to posts on these and other vendors.

Yankee recommends operators to "Evaluate [PCRF] your use cases - We have moved beyond Policy 1.0, where PCRFs had one use case: control traffic. Mobile operators can use today’s policy solutions to actuate marketing programs, provide tiered services and implement parental controls, to name only a few" and "Anticipate the PEC [Diameter routing] requirement and issue PEC RFPs"

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