[Survey]: Offload to Gain Most Traction in Mobile Traffic Management for 2015

Chetan Sharma [pictured] published his annual survey for 2015 - "a way to engage our knowledgeable community on the trends we are likely to see the next year. We put some of the pressing questions to our colleagues and industry leaders from all corners of the world .. Executives, developers, and insiders (n=175) from leading mobile companies and startups from across the value chain and from around the globe participated to help see what 2015 might bring to surprise us. The survey draws upon the unique collective wisdom of the folks who are the center of the mobile evolution. Thanks for being part of our annual ritual".

Q10 is relevant for this blog: "Which solutions will gain the most traction for managing mobile data broadband consumption?

Wi-Fi accounts for bulk of the mobile data traffic in almost all major markets hence the rise of mobile offload as the preferred solution for managing data growth. But, LTE deployment, spectrum acquisition, and tiered pricing remained the top solutions for the operators.

See "Mobile Predictions 2015" - here.

[Sharma]: US Wireless Signaling Traffic Increased 3X

Some highlights from Chetan Sharma's report on the US wireless for Q3, 2012 [see below]:

• The US mobile data market grew 3% Q/Q and 17% Y/Y to reach $19.9B in Q3 2012
   
• Most western markets have seen the net revenue in the messaging segment decline. The US market has resisted the decline thus far. In Q3 2012, for the first time, there was a decline in both the total number of messages as well as the total messaging revenue in the market.
   
• New types of plans [shared data] also evolved the decades-old operator metric of ARPU to ARPA (Average Revenue Per Account) given that we are seeing a strong influx of multiple devices per individual/household
   
• The overall data consumption in the US market in 2012 is expected to exceed 2000 Petabytes or 2 Exabytes. The smartphone data consumption at some operators is averaging close to 900 MB/mo. Some devices are averaging close to 2 GB/mo. As we move into 1GB range along with the family data plans kicking in, you can expect the data tiers to get bigger both in GBs and dollar amount.
   
• Mobile data traffic growth is likely to slow down to roughly 80% after doubling for the last five years. Voice traffic will dip below 10% of the overall traffic in 2012.
   
• The Signaling traffic has increased 3x.

See "Us wireless market_q3_2012_update_nov_2012_chetan_sharma_consulting" - here

Chetan Sharma on Shared Data Plans: "some of the fees need to be reduced or completely eliminated"

Chetan Sharma's (pictured) Q2 report on US wireless market refers to the shared data plan that were introduced recently in the US market (by Verizon and AT&T) - ".. We have been advocating shared data plans to create more consumer demand for over two years .. Verizon and AT&T launched the shared data plans this summer with AT&T getting the benefit of launching it second. While it is a great start, to be truly effective, some of the fees need to be reduced or completely eliminated".

See also "Verizon: Why Shared Data Plans are Good for Our Business" - here.

On traffic growth - " In 2012, we expect the mobile data growth to be around 80%. This has largely been driven by the introduction of data tiers, the use of WiFi offload, more developer education, throttling in some instances, and some compression and offloading solutions. However, as LTE becomes more widespread in the US, we expect the traffic growth to pick up again".

See "US Mobile Data Market Update Q2 2012" - here.

[Chetan Sharma]: "Policy management and data offload have emerged as top two solutions"

 
A new report by Chetan Sharma covers the recent trend in US mobile data market - "The US market generated $67 billion in mobile data revenues in 2011 accounting for 39% of the overall revenues for the country. The mobile data market grew 4% Q/Q and 19% Y/Y to reach $18.6B for the quarter. For the year 2012, we are forecasting that mobile data revenues in the US market will reach $80 billion"

"Mobile data traffic growth continued unabated doubling again for the 8th straight year. We expect the mobile consumption to double again in 2012. Data now constitutes over 85% of the mobile traffic in the US .. Approximately 30% of the smartphone users average more than 1GB/mo. As new devices and new network technology roll-out keep pace in 2012, the data traffic will grow at the expected pace. The signaling traffic is expected to grow in even faster".
  

"While the spectrum debate rages on, in addition to the network and backhaul upgrades, policy management and data offload have emerged as top two solutions that operators deploying around the world. Signaling management solutions like Diameter routing are also getting good traction" (more here - "Which Solutions will Gain the Most Traction for Managing Mobile Data?" - here).
   

"While 2011 was the year of figuring what the opportunities are in the new connected era, 2012 is starting to focus on how to monetize those opportunities".

See "US Wireless Market Update Q4 2011 and 2011" - here.

[Survey]: Which Solutions will Gain the Most Traction for Managing Mobile Data?

Chetan Sharma Consulting published the findings of its "2012 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey" (here and ) - ".. Executives, developers, and insiders (n=150) from leading mobile companies and startups from across the value chain and around the world participated to help see what 2012 might bring to keep us on our toes. What makes this survey unique is that it draws upon the collective wisdom of folks who are at the center of the mobile evolution". 



Source: Chetan Sharma Consulting



Question 11 was "Which solutions will gain the most traction for managing mobile data broadband consumption?" (see chart above) and the analysis says - "Managing data growth and margins drives all strategies at mobile operators these days which in turns drives the value chain. 4G, tiered pricing, and mobile offload continue to be the top solutions if one has the spectrum that is".

 

Which solutions will gain the most traction for managing mobile data broadband consumption?

 

Another "2011 prediction", this time from Chetan Sharma  (see previous coverage - here). One of the questions presented in the chart below.

"2010 saw the emergence of tiered data pricing in North America and operators all over the world are bracing for a long-term challenge of managing mobile data growth. We have written extensively on this subject in our Yottabyte series. Our panel ("Executives and insiders (n=225) from leading mobile companies across the value chain and around the world opined to help us see what 2011 might bring") voted for Tiered pricing and 4G as the top two solutions"  
See "2011 Mobile Predictions Survey" - here.

CHETAN SHARMA: 2010 Average Mobile Data Consumption to Grow 112% Y/Y

   

Chetan Sharma concludes in his recent report that: "Data traffic continued to increase across all networks. There are some superphones that are routinely average more than 1 GB/mo, superphones as a category is averaging 700-800 MB/mo. By the end of 2010, we expect the average US consumption to be approximately 325 MB/mo up 112% from 2009 .. Given that it is also becoming the largest deployment base for HSPA+ and LTE, most of the cutting edge research in areas of data management and experimentation with policy, regulations, strategy, and business models is taking place in the networks of the US operators and keenly watched by players across the global ecosystem."

See "US wireless Market - Q3 2010 Update" (here) and the extracted charts below showing data vs. voice services terns in terms of  revenues ("the mobile data revenues for the US market are likely to reach $55B in 2010") and ARPU ("average data ARPU grew by $0.82 or 5% Q/Q").

"As we had forecasted, the tiered pricing structure for mobile broadband expanded further with Verizon and T-Mobile following AT&T in deploying policy management strategies for controlling data margins. We will see the pricing evolve over the next 2-4 quarters as the US mobile ecosystem adjusts to the new realities and strategies for mobile data consumption"

 

See previous reports - here and here

CHETAN SHARMA: US Mobile Data Continues to Grow; Needs Traffic Management

 
Chetan Sharma published an updated report (here) on the US mobile Data market (see also "US Wireless Data Market will generate $53B in 2010" - here).

Below is their presentation summarizing the current findings.

Few quotes from the executive summary:

• Data traffic continued to increase across all networks. US has become ground zero for mobile broadband consumption and data traffic management evolution. While it lags Japan and Korea in 3G penetration by a distance, due to higher penetration of smartphones and datacards, the consumption is much higher than its Asian counterparts.
   
• Given that it is also becoming the largest deployment base for HSPA+, LTE and WiMAX, most of the cutting edge research in terms of data management and experimentation with policy, regulations, strategy, and business models is taking place in the networks of the US operators and keenly watched by players across the global ecosystem.
   
• 
  
  The Comcast ruling delivered a blow to the FCC and any directives or policies will hardly have any impact on the ecosystem in the short-term
   
• As we had mentioned last year, the mobile data traffic kept on growing disproportional to the revenues. A series of solutions have come into the market from players big and small
   
• [Slide15] As we noted in our last update, the data traffic is now significantly more than the voice traffic. The good news is that there are several solutions that available and are being invented that will help manage the data growth. The question is how fast will the operators deploy some of these solutions.

US Wireless Data Market will generate $53B in 2010

Chetan Sharma, the Technology and Strategy Consulting firm published an updated research on the US wireless data market - covering 2009 and forecasting 2010. (here). 

For my coverage of traffic control, I find the following as most interesting:   

• Q4 2009 shows a 24% growth over Q4 2008, and total of over $44B in revenues to the wireless operators for2009.
   
• Data services account for 29% of the overall wireless ARPU.
   
• While voice ARPU drops, data ARPU grew by 4%.
• In 2009. data traffic exceeded voice traffic (for the first time during a whole year)
   
• The report finds that the recent regulation (including Net Neutrality) start to change the industry - however additional details are not provided

And something more global: