ITU: "growth in Internet use has slowed down"

 

The ITU's "flagship annual Measuring the Information Society Report", was released and reveals the following:

• 3.2 billion people are now online, representing 43.4% of the global population

• Mobile-cellular subscriptions have reached almost 7.1 billion worldwide, with over 95% of the global population now covered by a mobile-cellular signal
   
• By the end of this year, 46% of households globally will have Internet access at home, up from 44% last year and just 30% five years ago, in 2010. 

• Growth in Internet use has slowed down, however, posting 6.9% global growth in 2015, after 7.4% growth in 2014.
   
• Fastest growth continues to be seen in mobile broadband, with the number of mobile-broadband subscriptions worldwide having grown more than four-fold in five years, from 0.8 billion in 2010 to an estimated 3.5 billion in 2015.
   
• The number of fixed-broadband subscriptions has risen much more slowly, to an estimated 0.8 billion today.
   
• The report notes that the proportion of households projected to have Internet access in 2020 will reach 56%, exceeding the Connect 2020 target of 55% worldwide.
    
• The price of mobile-cellular services continues to fall across the world.

See "ITU releases annual global ICT data and ICT Development Index country rankings" - here.

Allot: DPI Could Help CSPs Engage w/Customers at the Right Moment

Allot Communications announced that its recently published MobileTrends report "shows how the daily online behavior of each mobile customer can be used by CSPs to discover smarter ways to profile their customers and to propose targeted offers. 

Based on user profiles that were derived from online behavior, we identified 5+1 touch triggers for engaging customers at the right moment and in the right context for CSP service uptake: visits to risky sites, CSP competitor websites, and travel sites, as well as use of OTT cloud storage, mobile hotspots and video streaming.

• On average, subscribers have 72 daily online transactions (each with the potential to become a touch trigger)
   
• Business Users use mobile hotspots 69% more than the typical user profile, and Millennials do this 45% more than Baby Boomers
   
• 45% of Female customers and 38% of Male customers watch video daily
   
• 70% of video consumers are light viewers who watch 1-6 clips per day, while 8% are heavy viewers who watch 21+ clips per day. The majority of heavy viewers are Males (54%).

See "Allot Communications MobileTrends Report Reveals that 6% of Mobile Subscribers Visit Risky Websites Every Day" - here.

ITU: "57% of the world’s people remain offline"

A new report by the ITU finds that "Broadband Internet is failing to reach those who could benefit most, with Internet access reaching near-saturation in the world’s rich nations but not advancing fast enough to benefit the billions of people living in the developing world".

Other highlights:

• 57% of the world’s people remain offline
   
• 3.2 billion people are now connected, up from 2.9 billion last year and equating to 43% of the global population.
   
• the Net is only accessible to 35% of people in developing countries.
   
• the top ten countries for household Internet penetration are all located in Asia or the Middle East. The Republic of Korea continues to have the world’s highest household broadband penetration, with 98.5% of homes connected; Qatar (98%) and Saudi Arabia (94%) are ranked second and third respectively.  
• Iceland has the highest percentage of individuals using the Internet (98.2%), just ahead of near-neighbours Norway (96.3%) and Denmark (96%).

• Monaco remains very slightly ahead of Switzerland as the world leader in fixed broadband penetration, at over 46.8% of the population compared with the Swiss figure of 46%. There are now six economies (Monaco, Switzerland, Denmark, Netherlands, Liechtenstein and France) where fixed broadband penetration exceeds 40%, up from just one (Switzerland) in 2013.  

• The Asia-Pacific region now accounts for half of all active mobile broadband subscriptions, with Macao, China easily taking top place with 322 active mobile broadband subscriptions per 100 people – or just over 3 subscriptions per inhabitant – followed by second-ranked Singapore (156 subscriptions per 100 people) and Kuwait (140 subscriptions per 100 people).  

• In total, there are now 79 countries where over 50% of the population is online, up from 77 in 2014. The top ten countries for Internet use are all located in Europe.  

• The lowest levels of Internet access are mostly found in sub-Saharan Africa, with Internet available to less than 2% of the population in Guinea (1.7%), Somalia (1.6%), Burundi (1.4%), Timor Leste (1.1%) and Eritrea (1.0).

See "Global broadband growth slows sharply: 4 billion still offline" - here.

Sandvine: Netflix Reaches Almost 10% of Peak Downstream traffic in Austria and France

Sandvine released its ".. latest Global Internet Phenomena Report focusing on Asia-Pacific and Europe. The report is based on data from a selection of Sandvine’s 250-plus communications service provider (CSP) customers .. and contains findings from both fixed and mobile networks: 

• Netflix is making gains in the new European markets they entered late last year, with the service now accounting for almost 10% of peak downstream traffic in Austria and France
   
• Apple Music, bolstered by a three month free trial, has surpassed Spotify as the leading music streaming service on mobile networks in Australia and New Zealand
   
• YouTube is the top mobile application in both Europe and Asia-Pacific, making it the global leader in mobile traffic
   
• Online gaming continues to drive traffic on fixed networks with Twitch and Steam now top-10 applications for the first time in Europe and Asia-Pacific respectively
   
• A prediction that Filesharing traffic share has peaked in Asia-Pacific and will begin to see significant declines as more over-the-top (OTT) video services expand to the region
   
• On a European airline, the three most popular applications by bandwidth are Facebook, general Web Browsing, and Apple’s iMessage

See "Sandvine Report: Netflix And Apple Music Making International Gains" - here.

Ovum: 3 Key Factors to Best Broadband Consumer Experience

A new report by Michael Philpott [pictured], Practice Leader Consumer Services, Ovum finds that "In order to support their expectations of their broadband experience, the majority of fixed line consumer broadband users surveyed need a download speed of at least 10Mbps .. the best consumer experience is supported by three key factors: 

• a download speed of at least 10Mbps; [related post - "Broadband Minimal Speed is ..." - here]
• a stable and reliable network that delivers content with a wait time of no more than 3 seconds; and 
• outstanding customer service that can resolve most customer issues at the first point of contact.

The research, which combined a consumer survey with quantitative market data on the fixed broadband market in 30 countries, confirmed the rise of SD and HD video as a commonplace application that is driving the end-user experience, and hence the need for networks to be able to support high-quality video delivery". 


See "Ovum:10Mbps has become the new minimum to support customer broadband expectations" - here.

[Strategy Analytics]: "Wi-Fi traffic is growing at more than double the rate of Cellular traffic"

Data from Strategy Analytics’ Telemetry Intelligence Platform shows that "consumer appetite for data (Cellular and Wi-Fi combined) has exploded over threefold between H2 2013 and H1 2015. During the first half of 2015, on average, US Smartphone users consumed 9.7 GB / Month, of which only 1.6 GB / Month or 17% of the total data was generated on Cellular networks .. Wi-Fi traffic is growing at more than double the rate of Cellular traffic across all ethnicities".

Related post - "[ABI]: Wi-Fi Offload Traffic Volume will Exceed All Cellular Traffic" - here. 

The analysis is based on over one million individual application sessions from 3000+ panel members in the US. The results are powered by Strategy Analytics’ state-of- the-art Telemetry Intelligence Platform by leveraging three core components – a best-in-class telemetry application, an opt-in panel, and big data analytics framework to support rich analysis". 

See "Smartphone Data Traffic Explodes in US, Witness over 300% Growth in 2 Years" - here.

Did Microsoft's WUDO Help Saving B/W During Windows 10 Upgrade?

A post to Allot Communications' blog, by Maya Canetti [pictured], provides an analysis on the bandwidth consumes for Window 10 upgrade:

"it amounted to 8% worldwide before the launch on July 29, 2015 (when it became available for Windows Insiders) and around 4% on the official launch day. There are two reasons why the launch was so smooth. For one, Windows 10 is just not as popular as e.g., Apple’s iOS 7. Secondly, Microsoft did not rollout Windows 10 at once, but in stages.

.. Microsoft has embedded its “Windows Update Delivery Optimization” (WUDO) technology in Windows 10. Instead of relying on operators to schedule updates (as was done before), WUDO by default uses Windows users’ bandwidth to deliver Windows 10 updates and apps to all connected devices that are running Windows 10. The peer-to-peer patching technology is similar to BitTorrent. 

The impact of the staged Windows 10 release on networks bandwidth consumption was notable. The graph below, which was taken from a mobile operator during the period of July-August, clearly shows spikes in bandwidth on July 16, the prelaunch of Windows 10 to Windows Insiders, and on July 26, the official Windows 10 rollout". 

See "The Hidden Snag in Windows 10" - here.

[Gartner]: MNOs Should: Rethink Their Data Caps; Cache and Optimize Video

A new report by Jessica Ekholm [pictured], research director, Gartner finds that "Global mobile data traffic is set to reach 52 million terabytes (TB) in 2015, an increase of 59 percent from 2014,.. The rapid growth is set to continue through 2018, when mobile data levels are estimated to reach 173 million TB .. New, fast mobile data connections (3G and 4G) will grow more slowly, from 3.8 billion in 2015 to 5.1 billion in 2018, as users switch from slower 2G connections and consume more mobile data. 

Gartner analysts advise communication service providers (CSPs) to rethink their data caps to meet consumer needs and win market share .. CSPs must create and sell data plans with higher caps to increase their share of this growing market. With video usage as a percentage of total data usage set to rise from 50 percent now to 60 percent by 2018, we should expect CSPs to offer the best-of-breed video experience to consumers, This involves using video optimization technologies and caching content closer to the consumer. Contract plans that single out video traffic to allow users to reach a certain cap (without touching their contract data cap) will increase usage and revenue for CSPs and meet consumer demand for more mobile video."

See "Gartner Forecasts 59 Percent Mobile Data Growth Worldwide in 2015" - here.

Sandvine: NA Internet is Concentrated Around 3 Content Providers

Mobile Vs. Fixed: While Ericsson that sees "Facebook and 4 Other Apps" (here) in mobile networks, Sandvine sees (in North America's Fixed networks) much higher usage stats for Netflix, and claims that the internet is used to serve Netflix, Google and Facebook.

In its "latest Global Internet Phenomena Report focusing on North America and Latin America. The report is based on data from a selection of Sandvine’s 250-plus communications service provider (CSP) customers" Sandvine finds that:

• Netflix continues to slowly increase its domination of North American fixed networks, accounting for 36.5% of downstream traffic in the peak evening hours
   
• In Latin American, two companies, Facebook and Google, now control over 60% of total mobile traffic in the region

• BitTorrent continues to see a decline in fixed access bandwidth share, and now accounts for only 6.3% of total traffic in North America, and 8.5% in Latin America
   
• Netflix’s recent decision to encrypt their service will result in the majority of Internet traffic in Latin America and North America being encrypted in 2016 (see "Sandvine: Netflix Brings us to the Encrypted Age" - here)

See "Sandvine: In The Americas, Netflix + Google + Facebook = The Internet?" - here.

UK Experts: Need to Control Internet Demand, Due to Power & Fiber Shortage

    

Adam Withnall report to The Independent that "Britain could be forced to introduce internet rationing, after an expert warned it could consume the country’s entire power supply within 20 years. 

Experts said we were close to “filling up” the nation’s network of optical fibres for the first time ever, with the demands of popular video-streaming websites like YouTube and Netflix putting an unprecedented strain on communications infrastructure .. 

..devices such as PCs and TVs included, internet transmission already accounts for between 8 and 16 per cent of Britain’s power
 

Andrew Ellis [pictured], professor of optical communications at Aston University, said rationing internet use or charging more so that more cables can be installed may need to be considered. Unless action is taken, optical fibres could reach their limit within eight years". 

See "Britain may be forced to ration the internet, expert warns, as web use could consume 100% of nation's power supply by 2035" - here.

To be Connected: 1B Homes, 342M Cars

While an Infonetics report forecasts 1B fixed broadband connection (by 2019, here), a new report by James Hodgson [pictured], Research Analyst, ABI Research finds that "Connected Automotive Infotainment Systems will exhibit a CAGR of 33.8% over the next 5 years, with a rapid expansion in connected navigation and in-car Wi-Fi driving growth. Developed regions, which accounted for over 60% of shipments in 2014, will account for only 37.4% of shipments in 2020. Indeed, just over half of all systems shipping in 2020 will do so in the Asia-Pacific region.

..Many OEMs have made commitments to equip the majority of their consumer vehicles shipping in 2020 with embedded connectivity. Nevertheless, a significant number of vehicles are still expected to rely on smartphone integration for their connectivity, with shipments of telematics systems supporting such integration on average expected to exhibit a CAGR of 60.6% between 2015 and 2020.

.. it is unlikely systems such as Android Auto, Apple CarPlay and MirrorLink will serve as the vehicle’s sole infotainment system. Rather, they will complement the OEM’s own proprietary system, as is the case with the new Volvo XC90.”

See "Over 342 Million Connected Automotive Infotainment Systems to Ship between 2015 and 2020" - here.

[Infonetics]: 1B Fixed Broadband Subscribers by 2019 (5% CAGR)

A new report by Jeff Heynen [pictured], principal analyst for broadband access and pay TV, Infonetics Research finds that "global fixed broadband subscribers, including DSL, cable broadband, FTTH, and FTTB+LAN subscribers. (Infonetics tracks mobile broadband subscribers in its Mobile Services and Subscribers report.) grew 8 percent in 2014, reaching 733 million as service providers around the world continue to steadily add subscribers" 

The report forecasts that "global fixed broadband subscribers to grow at a 5 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2014 to 2019, led by China, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.

• Though DSL remains far and away the largest technology choice for fixed broadband, subscriber growth is being driven by FTTH and DOCSIS 3.0
   
• FTTH subscribers jumped 22 percent in 2014 from 2013, crossing the 100 million threshold for the first time"

See "Infonetics Projects Fixed Broadband Subscribers to Approach 1 Billion in 2019, Led by China" - here.

UK: LTE Performs Better than 3G!

Finally, a prove that the huge investment in LTE pays off!

   

A new research by the British regulator, Ofcom, finds that "Overall, 4G networks performed much better than 3G networks in five sample towns and cities tested - Edinburgh, Leeds, London, Newcastle and Poole/Bournemouth - where both 4G and 3G networks have been rolled out. In these areas, 4G networks delivered an average download speed of 14.7Mbit/s (compared with 5.9Mbit/s on 3G) and took 0.72 seconds to load a web page (compared with 1.04 seconds on 3G).

Source: Ofcom

Average download speeds, by provider, Q4 2014 Source: Ofcom

"For web browsing speed, the research measured the time it took to load a standard web page. Web browsing is one of the most popular activities on 4G. Across all 4G networks tested, average web browsing speed was 0.72 seconds"

Average web browsing speeds by provider, Q4 2014 (lower is better) Source: Ofcom

See "Ofcom today published research into 4G and 3G mobile broadband performance" - here.

Ericsson: It's Always Facebook and 4 Other Apps

A new report from Ericsson finds:

• Two-thirds of app data traffic over mobile networks comes from top five apps in each country studied, with video streaming and social networking dominating .. each nation displays its own unique preferences - for example, in December 2014, the US top three included Netflix and YouTube, while South Korea was notable for peer-to-peer TV app AfreecaTV and home-grown search portal NAVER.
  
  Facebook was the number one app in each country studied.

• Total mobile video traffic of next six years will be around 17 times that of last six years
   
• Q4 2014: LTE subscriptions achieved higher net additions, with 110 million, than WCDMA/HSPA for the first time.
    
• FY 2014: 800 million smartphone subscriptions added worldwide taking the total number to 2.7 billion, up 40% from a total of 1.9 billion subscriptions in 2013

See "Mobile data traffic dominated by top five apps: Ericsson Mobility Report" - here.

Broadband Minimal Speed is ...

Since my early days in data communications, when we were thrilled to migrate to a 64 kbps IBM 3274 terminal controller, things have changed. for Example - defining what is "high Speed" (or Broadband) is now a complicated task, involving also political and business aspects, not just new technologies and changes frequently:

• Josh Taylor reports to ZDNet that "The United States Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is proposing to raise the minimum speeds allowed for broadband from 4Mbps down, 1Mbps up to 25Mbps down, 3Mbps up .. According to a circulated fact sheet, the FCC is considering raising the definition to "reflect current consumer demands, deployment trends, and technological advances .. The draft report found that 53 percent of rural Americans lack access to the 25Mbps/3Mbps speeds, while across the entire US, 17 percent of -- or 55 million -- Americans lack access to those speeds. In urban areas, all but 8 percent of residents have access to 25Mbps, according to the draft report".
  
  

  

  Source: FCC Internet Access Services: Status as of December 31, 2013
  
  

  See "FCC to define broadband as minimum 25Mbps" - here.
  
  
• Akamai's State of the Internet report (here) says "Since 2012 Akamai has classified broadband as:
   
• High broadband: Internet speeds greater than 10 Mbps when connecting to Akamai 
• Broadband: Internet speeds of 4 Mbps or greater when connecting to Akamai". 
• Akamai also defines "Beyond high broadband" (i.e. readiness to view 4K videos) as "4K adaptive bitrate streams generally require 10 – 20 Mbps of bandwidth". 

Sky [UK]: Streaming Viedo Drives Christmas 2014 Peak Traffic to Double

Sky Broadband announced that " Britain’s “connected Christmas” continued in 2014 after it analysed usage on its network, which reaches over 5 million homes across the country. The amount of data crossing Sky’s network peaked at 2Tbps – equivalent to about 1 million families streaming Disney’s Frozen in HD at the same time – and 100% up on last year. 

On Christmas Day over half of Internet traffic was from streamed video services including Sky’s On Demand service. 

Comparatively, on the famed Black Friday weekend Sky’s network saw a lower demand as customers took to shopping online instead of streaming videos.

Usage on Christmas Day surpassed the levels seen from Christmas 2013, with a steady increase in traffic on the day between 8am and 12noon as families switched on to spread some Christmas cheer. The Sky Broadband network then saw traffic drop between 1pm and 3pm as families across Britain tucked into their turkey side-lining any new devices. Post lunch data traffic then started to increase again, reaching an evening peak at 11pm, as the family settled to stream the latest Box Sets, browse the Christmas sales beating the crowds and share pictures of their present haul". 

See "Sky Broadband peaks from Christmas Day" - here.

Ericsson Forecast: Video will be 55% of Mobile Data in 2020

Ericsson published a new revision of its Mobility Report (here). Among the findings:

• Video: largest and fastest growing segment of mobile data traffic - Video continues to dominate mobile networks: in 4G-dominated networks it currently constitutes 45-55 percent of mobile traffic, driven largely by increased usage of video streaming and improvements in the mobile video experience .. In terms of future outlook, Ericsson estimates that mobile video traffic will increase tenfold by 2020, ultimately constituting around 55 percent of all mobile data traffic in 2020. 

• 5G: subscriptions on the horizon - 5G is expected to be commercially deployed in 2020, and the technology is predicted to have a faster uptake than 4G LTE, just as 4G had a faster uptake than 3G. The difference here is that, in addition to new radio technologies, 5G will also encompass evolved versions of existing radio access (such as 3G and 4G), cloud, and core technologies to cater for the thousands of new ways that mobile technology will be used. 5G growth will be driven to a large extent by new use cases, especially in machine-type communications.

See "Ericsson Mobility Report: 90 percent will have a mobile phone by 2020" - here.

UK: 4G vs. 3G QoE Tested

Ofcom published its first research into "..consumers' experience of mobile broadband in the UK since the 4G auction in 2013. The research measured the performance of 4G and 3G services on smartphones from the four main mobile operators - EE, O2, Three and Vodafone - in Birmingham, Edinburgh, Glasgow, London and Manchester". 

Using smartphones, some 210,000 tests of 4G and 3G mobile broadband were carried out both indoors and outdoors across the five UK cities between March and June 2014 .. The research compared the performance of 4G and 3G services overall and highlighted variations between operators across four key measures: Download speed, Upload speed, Web browsing speed and Latency". 

See "4G and 3G mobile broadband speeds research" - here.

[UK]: Cable Service is Faster than Fiber!

According to a new research by the UK regulator, Ofcom, the "average broadband speed delivered by cable services is now faster than that of fibre - In the six months to May 2014, the average speed delivered by cable broadband reached 43.3Mbit/s, overtaking the average speed for fibre connections for the first time (42.0Mbit/s)"

Average broadband speeds for fixed broadband connections,
all connections including ‘up to’ 2Mbit/s and less, by technology
Source: Ofcom

Key findings from Ofcom's research show that between November 2013 and May 2014:

• the average actual UK broadband speed increased by 5% (0.9Mbit/s) to 18.7Mbit/s;

Average UK broadband speed:
May 2014 Source: Ofcom

• take-up of superfast services (those with a headline speed of 30Mbit/s and above) increased from 24% to 28% of connections, while average superfast speeds remained stable at 47Mbit/s;
   
• the extent to which speeds were maintained during peak evening times varied significantly between broadband packages, ranging from 76% to 96% of maximum speeds"

Finding regarding providers:

• "Virgin Media's ‘up to' 152Mbit/s cable service, which launched in February 2014, achieved the fastest download speed over a 24 hour period, averaging 141.9Mbit/s
   
• This was followed by BT's ‘up to' 76Mbit/s fibre package, which delivered an average download speed of 62.0Mbit/s
   
• EE's ‘up to' 38Mbit/s package experienced the greatest degradation in speeds during peak times. The average speed for this type of connection between 8pm and 10pm was 27.2Mbit/s - 76% of the maximum speed (35.8Mbit/s). Five per cent of consumers on this package received average peak-time speeds that exceeded 90% of their maximum speed
   
• In comparison, customers on Sky's 'up to' 38Mbit/s package saw the least degradation in average speeds. Speeds achieved during evening peak-time (34.5Mbit/s) were 96% of the average maximum speed (35.9Mbit/s)"

See "Average cable broadband speed overtakes fibre" - here.

Citrix: LTE Video Data is 5X Compared to 3G

A new report by Citrix (Bytemobile) finds that:

• Mobile network traffic volume associated with video has increased worldwide over 2013 and now represents 52% of worldwide mobile network traffic volume, as compared to 45% in Q2 2013 

• On a daily basis, social networking is the most popular mobile application, with 40% of mobile subscribers engaged, followed closely by news & information at 37% and shopping at 30%

• There are 1.5x more requests for video over LTE than over 3G. These result in 5X more video data volume served over the LTE network than the 3G network due to longer viewing times and higher resolution content 

See "Citrix Data Shows New Trends in Mobile Subscriber Data Usage" - here.