A recent research by Oracle (Tekelec) finds that "Long-term evolution (LTE) Diameter signaling traffic will grow at more than twice the rate of mobile data traffic through 2017, according to the second annual Oracle Communications LTE Diameter Signaling Index. The Index predicts that worldwide LTE Diameter signaling traffic will increase at a 140 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR), from 1.2 million messages per second (MPS) in 2012 to nearly 99 million MPS by 2017".
Tekelec's previous report predicted even higher CAGR - see "Tekelec Diameter Index Shows 252% CAGR Signaling Growth (2011-2016)" - here].
Source: Oracle Communications LTE Diameter Signaling Index:
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Source: Oracle Communications LTE Diameter Signaling Index:
Forecast Report and Analysis 2012-2017
".. policy MPS are expected to more than triple in each of 2013 and 2014 compared with the previous year. By 2017, policy will account for 62 percent of signaling volumes .. The Index predicts that North America will be the largest contributor to Diameter signaling traffic each year in the forecast period. In 2017, the region is expected to reach nearly 43 million MPS".
See "LTE Diameter Signaling Traffic to Grow More than Twice as Fast as Mobile Data Traffic" - here.
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It's a shame they don't have a more technical analysis of why they think this is going to happen. Based on the kind of call flows I've seen in the past I've only ever seen Diameter messages scaling at about the same rate as increased data traffic. I'm not saying they are wrong but I'd like to understand why they make this claim based on some specific use cases and associated call flows.
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