[Guest post]: Olympic Sized Bottlenecks - Traffic predictions put pressure on operators to speed up the mobile Internet

By Merav Bahat*, VP Marketing and and Business Development, Flash Networks

London Mayor Boris Johnson announced his concerns that mobile networks could collapse during the Olympics, due to millions of additional downloads and web visits. Based on peaks in World Cup traffic from last year, London should brace itself for a data tsunami. ESPN Mobile generated more traffic than ESPN.com with 98 million visits to their World Cup content. Twitter achieved an all-time high of 3,283 tweets per second compared with their average of 750 during Japan's victory over Denmark.

Expectations are that there will be bursts of video traffic with a dramatic increase in uplinks and downloads as friends share their experience on YouTube and attending fans continuously using their smartphones and tablets to stay tuned and updated. In addition, just to add another challenge for operators, BBC has announced that they will be doing 3D broadcasts, where each video broadcast could conceivably take up twice the bandwidth.

There are several measures to boost network capacity, including upgrading to LTE, offloading to Wi-Fi, and rolling out additional macro cell sites and mobile backhaul lines. However, all of these steps require large capital outlays and take time to deploy, something that might not be practical given time limitations and the temporary nature of traffic challenges.

The more viable alternative is network optimization solutions that are designed to reduce network load in order to pack in more data and serve more users using the same infrastructure while ensuring quality video images and smooth browsing for a superior user experience.

Video Data Explosion

More and more spectators of events are becoming journalists on the scene, recording and posting results at the finish line to be the first to share with their friends. With the growing adoption of video-enabled devices and the increasing popularity of video content, the amount of traffic travelling over mobile operators’ networks is skyrocketing. In addition, with the proliferation of high definition video, the same video content on YouTube today consumes three times the megabytes compared with just a year ago.

In order to reap the most benefits, both in terms of revenues and customer loyalty, operators need to optimize video to reduce the load on the network without sacrificing viewing enjoyment.

In order to accomplish this, optimization systems monitor network status, as well as video and image quality and the smoothness of video streaming, and then select the level of optimization based on device capabilities. The rate of optimization is also adjusted in real-time based on network conditions. For example, as the quality of the connection deteriorates, the media encoding rate is decreased and then smoothly increased as conditions improve.

In addition, popular videos, such as YouTube's Top 10, are re-encoded and cached, eliminating the need to fetch from the Internet every time a subscriber makes a request. The process of optimization is also done offline whenever possible for improved response times and less interference with online viewing.

Cell-Based and Policy-Aware Data Optimization

Sporting events, such as the Olympics, create bursts of traffic in specific locations that are not representative of the level of congestion in the entire network. However, many optimization solutions apply the same techniques to the whole network, based on the highest level of traffic. This approach can reduce the quality of experience for subscribers unnecessarily.

Cell-Based Data Optimization uses dynamic policies to ensure the most relevant optimization technique is applied to each cell based on local traffic patterns. The level of optimization can be set based on expected busy hours, for example during the final minutes of a popular Olympic event, or adjusted automatically based on real-time traffic patterns.

In addition, the operator may choose to differentiate users in these locations during busy hours and congestions – so premium users can still enjoy high video and web quality. By varying the level of optimization, the network is used more efficiently while ensuring the best possible user experience for everyone.

3D Optimization

The BBC announcement that they will be doing 3D broadcasts at the Olympics comes at a time when providing enough bandwidth to view standard video is already challenging. Yet the 3D mobile video is a buzz term that may become a reality. LG and Sharp announced last year the launch of 3D phones with built-in 3D cameras, and collaboration with YouTube for easy loading of 3D clips.

The way 3D video is designed, it takes up double the bandwidth to capture the same image as standard video, increasing the likelihood of bottlenecks. Optimizing 3D video also requires special care stripping down, compressing, and rebuilding to maintain the 3D effect. Not providing 3D optimization, or not applying it properly, could be an unpleasant surprise for operators and manufacturers, sabotaging the adoption of the new service.

3D and Cell-Based Optimization provide an added insurance policy by reducing the data load for sporting events like the Olympics. Adjusting optimization based on network, subscriber and device characteristics, and real time network conditions provides an extra level of sophistication to help manage bursts of traffic.

In the end, however, the success of all these network optimization techniques at the Olympics will be measured by the subscribers' quality of experience. The goal is that even with all the record breaking traffic, there will still be award winning 3D video viewing and streaming.

_________

*Merav Bahat joined Flash Networks in 2008, bringing with her more than 12 years of marketing, product management and business development experience in the mobile industry. Prior to joining Flash Networks, Merav served as Associated Vice President of Strategic Marketing for the Value Added Services division at Comverse. She also held the position of Director of Marketing for the Voice and Video Applications business unit at Comverse. 

Merav  has a B.Sc. in Industrial Management Engineering from the Technion – Israeli Institute of Technology and an MBA from Ben Gurion University.

Monday's Guest Post: 3D Sports Video is Coming to Mobile Internet; How it will be Optimized?

   
A new guest post will be published on Monday. In her article, "Olympic Sized Bottlenecks -Traffic predictions put pressure on operators to speed up the mobile Internet", my 11th guest, Merav Bahat, will describe the mechanics behind video, cell-based and policy-aware data optimization and 3D optimization and how these techniques can be applied, without influencing the users perceived difference in the quality of experience.

"A good user experience is important more now than ever. Because it's no longer just the alpha adopters who will get angry at a brand that delivers a poor mobile experience, it is hundreds of millions of people worldwide with access to high speed wireless data networks" says Merav.

Stay tuned.

If you like to propose a guest post, please send me a proposed subject, abstract and the author details.

UK 2012 Olympic Delegation: All Available Frequencies (and Athletes)

 
Back in October I had a post predicting hard time for mobile services during the London Olympic Games this summer:

"London mayor Boris Johnson, Three CEO David Dyson and others have warned that London will run out of mobile capacity within a year, and that the influx of visitors to the 2012 Olympics was likely to crash the existing networks" (see "A Year Before the Olympics - London is Running Out of Mobile Capacity" - here).

It turns out that the UK regulator, Ofcom, wasn't ignoring the challenge and "has been working on a plan since 2006 to ensure that viewers will not miss any of the sporting action".

In a new report, Ofcom says that ".. The event presents a unique logistical challenge never faced before by the UK, with a need to assign up to 20,000 wireless frequencies to be used for the Games in London, more than double the number usually assigned in a year" and lists how the demand for capacity will be met:

"To meet the extra demands of broadcasters, media and the London 2012 Organising Committee (LOCOG) during Games time, Ofcom has developed a plan to secure additional capacity. This will be achieved in four main ways:

• By borrowing spectrum on a short-term basis from public sector bodies, such as the Ministry of Defence
• Ensuring that civil spectrum is used efficiently by making unused frequencies available. An example of this is spectrum that will shortly be auctioned by Ofcom, but is currently not being used
• Making use of spectrum freed up by the digital switchover
• Using spectrum that is available without the need for a licence

See "Record spectrum demand at London 2012 Games" - here.

3UK: New Year's Mobile Traffic Growth: Voice +10%; SMS +28%; Data +471%

     

While many mobile operators are concerned  that OTT data services will cannibalize their legacy services revenues (see "Study: Majority of MNOs Worried of Revenues Decline due to OTT Applications" - here), 3 UK shows a different view.

Data (unlimited for smartphones in their case) is rising, but traditional services are growing as well at least by the recent statistics, comparing New Year's Eve 2011 to 2010 traffic. 3 seems to be happy with the mix.

"The amount of data Three’s smartphone customers used on New Year’s Eve leapt from 14 terabytes (TBs) in 2010 to a massive 80TBs in 2011. The trend continued through New Year’s Day, with 74TBs used compared to 14TBs the year before .. Traditional mobile traffic grew too, but this growth was hugely outstripped by data. SMS levels grew from 36m on New Year’s Eve 2010, to 46m this year, while calls went from 19m last year to 21m" 

"Facebook was one of the most popular services as people rung in the New Year, with a 20% jump in traffic between midnight and 1am".

Thomas Malleschitz (pictured), Three’s Marketing Director, said: “.. It also shows just how important data bundles are becoming – and of course the value of plans which offer genuinely All-you-can-eat handset data allowances”

See also - "Skype Grew by 48% in 2011 - Generating 25% of all International Minutes" - here.

See "Smartphones drive huge new year’s eve data surge" - here.

Ofcom: Why does the UK Need More 4G Sepctrum?

 
Ofcom, the UK regulator, "set out a number of new proposals for making 4G mobile spectrum available in the UK. This includes introducing new measures expected to extend coverage to at least 98% [indoor coverage by population] of the UK population and revised plans to promote competition".
 Why?

"Demand for mobile data in Western Europe is estimated to increase by more than 500% over the next five years. This demand is being fuelled by smartphones and mobile broadband data services such as video streaming, email, messenger services, online mapping and social networking"
  

" .. As the UK switches from analogue to more efficient digital TV, new spectrum capacity is becoming available to meet this demand. This ‘digital dividend’ uses airwaves in the 800MHz band, which will be auctioned along with higher frequency airwaves in the 2.6GHz band at the end of 2012. This will be equivalent to three quarters of the mobile spectrum in use today" 

See "Proposals to extend 4G mobile coverage" - here. See also "[Yankee Group]: MBB Penetration in Western Europe to Reach over 14% by 2015" - here.

[Yankee Group]: MBB Penetration in Western Europe to Reach over 14% by 2015

 
A new research by Declan Lonergan (pictured), VP, Yankee Group, finds that "Mobile broadband (MBB) penetration in Western Europe will increase from less than 8 percent of the population at the end of 2010 to over 14 percent by 2015 .. Despite continued economic uncertainty, the total number of MBB connections—excluding smartphones—will almost double from 32 million at the end of 2010 to 60 million by 2015".

"Demand for MBB will remain strong, driven by significant increases in the use of wirelessly connected tablets. But several factors will also combine to inhibit market growth. These include economic uncertainty, limited price reductions, and the simple fact that much of the low-hanging fruit in the cellular modem category has already been picked"


See "Tablets Give Mobile Broadband a Boost" - here.

Amdocs: How to Deal with Mobile Data Capacity Growth?

    

A new white paper from Amdocs recommends 10 ways for mobile operators to deal with the increasing demand for bandwidth.

Some are obvious, (reminding me the advise of a board member on how to increase revenues - "sell more") some reflect the recent technology trends.

It will be interesting to see what role Amdocs will play with helping operators implement theses advises.

See "10 Ways to deal with Mobile Data Capacity Crunch" - here.

Amdocs' 10 recommendations are:

1. Expand existing cellsite capacity - several methods listed, including upgrade to HSPA+
    
2. Roll out LTE (after or instead of HSPA+, I guess)
    
3. Buy more spectrum
    
4. Offload data to Wi-Fi and femtocells - (see "[Yankee Group]: "half of the 4G operators to use femtocells" - here)
    
5. Deploy Metro-Femto
    
6. Sideload content
    
7. Introduce traffic shaping - (limit bandwidth hungry applications and/or use monthly caps - "Service providers such as T-Mobile USA, Mobilkom Austria and others have found more positive results from their customers by taking this approach [monthly quota]."
    
8. Expand range of data tariffs  - we are probably getting closer to Amdocs here, so are we going to see a PCRF product soon?
   
   "Approaches which could be considered include charging premiums or blocking some types of data traffic, such as streaming video which places high demands on network resources. Such services may be restricted to offpeak times or only through Wi-Fi/femtocells on some tariffs; premium tariffs could be charged for higher performance and/or priority"
    
9. Optimize, compress data content - for video traffic (see also "Does Video Optimization Solve Mobile Data Congestion?" - here)
    
10. Improve application design

Survey: "Mobile providers are remodeling their pricing strategies"

 

A survey commissioned by international law firm Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer "mobile challenges survey" concludes that "Mobile operators moving towards usage-based pricing models to relieve network congestion and contain the cost of funding next-generation networks"

See "The beginning of the end for flat-rate mobile tariffs" - here.

"Almost half of international mobile executives (48%) predict mobile operators will focus on developing new pricing models over the next three years, with 55% agreeing that tiered pricing is the way forward in mature markets and 47% arguing flat-rate “all-you-can-eat” data tariff plans are damaging their ability to increase revenue"

Natasha Good, co-head of Freshfields’ mobile group, says, ‘Mobile providers are remodelling their pricing strategies to sweat their assets whilst tentatively looking at new product offerings .. Usage-based pricing is a logical solution. ... By squeezing demand for bandwidth through pricing, mobile operators are less likely to opt for traffic management tools such as choking the pipeline for users, perceived by some regulators to violate so-called net neutrality objectives .. To maintain profitability, avoid being categorised as just a “dumb pipe” and make customers “sticky”, network operators will look to join forces with content providers and application developers’

Related posts:

• Ofcom: Mobile Data Volume +2234%, Revenues +90% (in 2 Years) - here
• TeliaSonera's New Business Model: Value-based Pricing - here

 

 

 

 

Ofcom: 21% of Broadband Homes Use Mobile Broadband

   

One more chart from the recent Ofcom report (see "Ofcom: Mobile Data Volume +2234%, Revenues +90% (in 2 Years)" - here) shows the access technologies used by households with broadband service in Q12010:

• 8.5% used a mobile broadband service only
• 12.7% used fixed and mobile
• 78.8% use a fixed service only 

A year ago only 4.4% used mobile only (close to 100% growth).

So while you can’t download 2.7TB a month (here) with an MBB service, and if you do it may cost you £27,000 (£5/500MB here), mobile broadband quickly becomes a valid alternative to DSL or Cable.

Ofcom: Mobile Data Volume +2234%, Revenues +90% (in 2 Years)

  

Ofcom. the UK regulator, published a survey "The Communications Market 2010" (here) with enormous amount of information on communication (TV, Radio and Internet) consumption in the UK.

One of the charts (see below) compares the revenues and volume consumption in mobile data. Ofcom says - "It indicates a substantial growth in data revenues, but a much faster growth in data use, which we estimate increased by over 2200% in the two years to the end of 2009. During 2009 there was a slowdown of growth in data revenues, which increased by 26%, while data volumes more than doubled. Overall, this represents a 92% fall in the cost per unit of data between Q4 2007 and Q4 2009, and a 59% fall in the cost per unit of data between Q4 2008 and Q4 2009."

This phenomenon is not new, and is commonly known as the "scissor effect". We have seen lately how this could be improved:

• Ericsson CTO: "The business model for mobile broadband is becoming one of increasing profitability and competitive differentiation through superior QoS - here
   
• DPI Deployments (17): Leap Wireless/Cricket New Service Plans - here
   
• Skype Does Good for 3UK  - here
   
• TeliaSonera's New Business Model: Value-based Pricing - here.

Ofcom comments that ".. it should be noted that data revenues are likely to be understated, as we are only able to include data-specific revenues (i.e. metered fees or separate add-ons), whereas increasingly a data allocation is included within the monthly line rental fee for mobile contracts. The increase in data volumes and revenues should also be seen in the context of operators using existing capacity on 3G networks, and achieving substantial increases in capacity with the relatively inexpensive upgrade of 3G networks to HSPA."

Yankee Group: CDNs Expand to Mobile Broadband [Independent Caching OK?]

  

"The market for mobile CDN services has not yet hit its stride, but it will be a key growth area in the future. Carriers and content providers are increasingly looking to CDNs for help with mobile video service products, and CDNs are amping themselves up to be prepared to offer such mobile video-centric services" - concludes Terry Cudmore, from the Yankee Group in a new research "As Mobile Networks Increase in Importance, So Do Mobile CDNs"  - here.

As I do not have access to the report, I can't say if it covers also the independent caching solutions that operators may install at their core networks, such as the solutions offered by Allot (Mediaswift), Bluecoat (here), Huawei (here), Oversi (here) and PeerApp (here). These solutions will cache videos (and shared files) regardless of the content providers, instead of deploying several CDNs each handling specific content.

Caching of shared files presents another advantage to mobile operators - uploads (to off-net users) may be delivered by the cache server, eliminating the need to go to the user's device over the expensive radio network.