Analysys Mason: "The mobile data explosion is a myth"

    
"Mobile network operators can easily meet the demands on their networks at the current growth rates without huge investment in LTE, and could even emerge from the initial phase of market growth with substantially improved revenue-per-byte rates and much healthier margins, states the latest research Analysys Mason 

Measured mobile data traffic growth in Europe is nothing like as fast as ‘doubling every year’, a frequently reiterated claim. Our research indicates that while European mobile data traffic grew by 110% in 2009, it will grow by about 35% in 2010, and that there is no real prospect of a pick-up in growth rates in 2011." 

The US seems to be different - see "CHETAN SHARMA: 2010 Average Mobile Data Consumption to Grow 112% Y/Y" - here).

According to  Rupert Wood, Principal Analyst at Analysys Mason, "Mobile broadband traffic generated by PCs is by far the largest part, accounting for over 90% of traffic, but it is also the part with the slowest growth .. In fact in some markets mobile broadband traffic growth has already come to a standstill ..s ubscriber bases are still growing, but each subscriber uses on average less and less .. The other misunderstood area, according to the research, is the proportion of smartphone-generated data that actually flows over cellular networks .. is actually very low, probably as little as 10–20% in countries where most households have a fixed broadband connection.”

See "Weak growth in over-hyped mobile data traffic dampens need for LTE, says Analysys Mason" - here.