Amdocs Survey on Mobile Data Explosion: is it just a Myth?

    
Last week,  Rupert Wood, Principal Analyst at Analysys Mason, concluded that "Mobile network operators can easily meet the demands on their networks at the current growth rates without huge investment in LTE.. Measured mobile data traffic growth in Europe is nothing like as fast as ‘doubling every year’, a frequently reiterated claim. Our research indicates that while European mobile data traffic grew by 110% in 2009, it will grow by about 35% in 2010, and that there is no real prospect of a pick-up in growth rates in 2011."  (See "Analysys Mason: "The mobile data explosion is a myth" - here).

This was a refreshing approach, very different from what we have heard so far from vendors (Allot), researchers (Chetan Sharma) and regulators (Ofcom).


Amdocs commissioned Telesperience to research what operators are saying::

"More than 60% of wireless service providers interviewed are experiencing data congestion, with 20% registering severe overload at specific times"..  75% of wireless service providers surveyed view end-to-end quality of service (QOS) design – which ensures a satisfactory customer experience during a voice call or data transfer – as having the greatest impact on their bottom line through increased customer support costs and customer churn".

See press release - "Amdocs Survey: Wireless Service Providers Say the 'Capacity Crunch' Impacts Brand Perception"  - here and "The Mobile Data Capacity Crunch is affecting Brand Reputation" - here (full document - here)

Nevertheless, if Analysys Mason meant that operators could use intelligent network elements (DPI, Cache, optimization) to ease the pain, these methods are not so popular, and almost everybody goes to the good old fashioned "expand capacity" strategy (see 2nd chart for the congested elements).