IHS: Distributed Antenna Systems Nodes Will Triple by 2018

 
A new report by Stéphane Téral, research director for mobile infrastructure and carrier economics, IHS ".. interviewed 16 of the world’s top 20 independent wireless, incumbent, competitive and cable operators that operate DAS (distributed antenna systems) and found that, on average, respondents expect the DAS nodes in their networks to more than triple between now and 2018. DAS is used by large service providers and venue owners—airports, stadiums, casinos, malls and the like—to improve network coverage in venues where a macrocell approach does not work .. When asked about the types of DAS nodes they are deploying, 69 percent of the service providers taking part in our DAS study indicated they are using both active and passive DAS,

• The most common DAS locations are stadiums, tunnels, outdoor metro and retail malls
   
• Indoor coverage optimization is the top DAS driver among respondents, while deployment cost is the number-one barrier
   
• Axell Wireless, CommScope and TE Connectivity (listed in alphabetical order) are perceived as the top DAS manufacturers by survey respondents

See "Good News for Mobile Networks in Large Venues: Carriers Adding More Distributed Antenna Systems (DAS)" - here.

IHS: VoLTE Starts to Pick Up; Huawei Leads the SP VoIP and IMS Market

A new report by Diane Myers [pictured], research director for VoIP, UC and IMS, IHS finds that ".. global service provider VoIP (voice over IP) and IMS (IP multimedia subsystem) revenue was up 46 percent year-over-year in 2Q15, to $1.3 billion .. Spending related to voice over LTE (VoLTE) deployments is starting to pick up, especially in Europe and India, fueling continued strong growth in the service provider VoIP and IMS market ..As well, operators with commercial VoLTE networks in North America and Asia Pacific are purchasing additional capacity as subscriber numbers grow in those regions". 

"Huawei took the lead in overall service provider VoIP and IMS revenue market share in 2Q15 ..  Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, GENBAND and Mavenir (a division of Mitel) also had standout growth from a year ago". 

See "Service Provider VoIP and IMS Market Soars 46 Percent YoY in 2nd Quarter" - here.

[IHS]: Global Carrier SDN Market to Reach $5.7B in 2019

     

A new report by Michael Howard [pictured], senior research director for carrier networks, IHS concludes that "As service providers seek service agility and operational efficiency in their networks to stay competitive, the global market for carrier software-defined networking (SDN) software, hardware and services is expected to grow from $103 million in 2014 to $5.7 billion in 2019 .. We’re still early in the long-term, 10- to 15-year transformation of service provider networks to SDN. 

Momentum is strong, but we won’t see widespread commercial deployments where bigger parts of — let alone whole — networks are controlled by SDN until 2016 through 2020".  

"SDN software — including network apps, such as traffic analytics, and orchestration and controller software — is the critical piece that will convert a network into a software-defined network .. service providers around the world will increase their spending on SDN software by 15 times from 2015 to 2019.

Due to the newness of SDN technology and the fundamental changes it brings to networks, there is an incredible demand for expertise to design, deploy and operate SDN-based services, and carriers are looking to vendors for this expertise".
 See "Carriers on Track to Spend $5.7B on SDN Hardware, Software and Services by 2019" - here.

MNO Survey: 5G is Still an Unknown; LTE Materializing

A new survey by Stéphane Téral, research director for mobile infrastructure and carrier economics, IHS in which "operators were interviewed about their LTE network deployment plans, challenges and service offerings" finds that many do not know what 5G networks are:

"The 5G debate has started with great fanfare, hype and confusion, but little substance about what it is exactly and what it is not. For now, the mindset is still locked into mobile broadband as we know it with LTE, so it’s good that the ITU has just stepped in to define 5G in its brand new IMT-2020"

"Half of respondents participating in the study say they have already deployed LTE-Advanced (LTE-A) in their LTE networks [see "GSA: 497M LTE Subscriptions Worldwide" - here and "GSA: 360 LTE Networks Launched; 96 in 2014" - here] .. We are slowly but surely moving to true 4G, and that’s good news. However, most users already believe they are on 4G, and that’s the bad news because the experience is far from consistent and is falling short of expectations. How many times does your smartphone display LTE or 4G and you still see the infamous spinning wheel?”

"Ericsson, Huawei and Nokia (in alphabetical order) are perceived by survey respondents as the top LTE equipment manufacturers". 

Source: 5G Concept, by IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group - here.

Source: 5G Concept, by IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group - here.

See "5G Hype Aside, True 4G Is Finally Materializing, Says IHS" - here.

[Infonetics]: "Despite the rise of mobile data, blended ARPU continues to fall"

A recent report by Stéphane Téral, principal analyst for mobile infrastructure and carrier economics, Infonetics Research (the first after being acquired by IHS - here - Congratulations to J'Amy, Shira and the team!) finds that:

• "Worldwide mobile service revenue barely budged in the first half of 2014 (1H14), up just 0.5% from the same period a year ago, to $385.5 billion .. For the first time, voice usage slightly slowed, dragged by China where over-the-top (OTT) alternatives took their share, and mobile broadband overtook SMS as the largest revenue generator of mobile data. 

• Mobile broadband revenue rose 26% in 1H14 from 1H13 and continued to drive overall mobile services market growth .. Despite the rise of mobile data, blended ARPU continues to fall, but at a much slower pace in every region, including developing Asia Pacific"  

See "Mobile broadband overtakes SMS as largest generator of mobile data revenue" - here.

[iSuppli] 1.2B(!) LTE Subscribers by 2016

A new report by Francis Sideco (pictured), senior principal analyst, wireless communications, IHS iSuppli concludes that "Global 4G LTE subscribers this year are forecast to reach 73.3 million, up a whopping 334 percent from 16.9 million in 2011 .. Another round of impressive triple-digit growth, equivalent to 181 percent, is expected in 2013 when 4G LTE subscribers total 205.7 million. By 2016, 4G LTE subscribers will reach nearly 1.2 billion strong, as shown in the figure below .. Subscribers to the older 3G technology will continue to outnumber 4G LTE users, but the pace of growth for 3G will be significantly slower and not exceed 35 percent at any point from this year onward".

Previous reports predicted 802M LTE subscribers by 2017 (Pyramid - here) or 430M by 2016 (older report, Juniper Research - here).

See "Rapid Advance of LTE Spurs Convergence of Electronic Products" - here.

[IHS] Net Neutrality is Still Here; Driven by Operators-OTT Conflict

   

A new report by Dexter Thillien (pictured), Senior Analyst, Telecoms, IHS Global Insight "looks at the topic of net neutrality as data traffic increases and regulators look to legislate on the issue".

The key findings are:

• With data traffic growing at a fast pace and increasing mobile broadband demand, the net-neutrality issue has taken centre stage
   
• Operators are looking to protect their investments and their bandwidth, while over-the-top (OTT) companies want to ensure that content won't be arbitrarily blocked
   
• Several countries and regions have consultations on the topic, but very few have binding net-neutrality legislation, with the US  [here] and the Netherlands  [here] the two pioneers in the field
   
• Net neutrality means different things to different players [here], with no two markets sharing the same definition. However, a common denominator exists based on transparency [EU - here ; UK - here; see also "Allot: 25% of MNOs Have a Transparency Issue with "Unlimited" Service Plans" - here] and fair traffic-management practices [here]
   
• The main issues remain whether the internet is a public good or a business, and whether there exists one or several internets
   
• Further differences exist in terms of whether to cover both fixed and mobile networks, as well as the role of piracy [here] and OTT players in the net-neutrality debate
   
• The US case study highlights that the middle ground pleases no-one, while the Dutch example highlights the risk of all-encompassing legislation
   
• Regulators have the arduous task of ensuring that there remains strong competition within a specific market, while at the same time ensuring that customers are well-served by their providers
   
• The battle between carriers and providers is set to continue, with carriers now offering their own internet services as they have a similar objective in maintaining a key relationship with the end user.

The paper, "Net Neutrality on the Radar", is available here (registration required) or by contacting the author (here).

See also "US Net Neutrality: Different Things to Different People; Lawsuits to Come" - here.