Vendors: Time to Update Presentations! New VNI is Here!

Almost all presentations of vendors offering Broadband Traffic Management and Optimization products use Cisco's Visual Networking Index (VNI) data to prove why carriers and ISPs need their solutions to survive.

So it is time to refresh these pages, as Cisco issues a new VNI report Cisco® Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast (2010-2015) - here - with new, even bigger, exciting numbers!

"..the total amount of global Internet traffic will quadruple by 2015 and reach 966 exabytes per year .. The projected increase of Internet traffic between 2014 and 2015 alone is 200 exabytes, which is greater than the total amount of Internet Protocol traffic generated globally in 2010 ..By 2015, there will be nearly 15 billion network connections via devices .. By 2015, there will be nearly 3 billion Internet users .. By 2015, 1 million video minutes --the equivalent of 674 days --will traverse the Internet every second "

Nevertheless, "By 2015, global peer-to-peer traffic will account for 16 percent of global consumer Internet traffic, down from 40 percent in 2010" [in absolute numbers this is more than we have today, as total traffic will Quadruple]

See "Global Internet Traffic Projected to Quadruple by 2015" - here.

Cisco: Mobile Data Traffic Nearly Tripled in 2010

 

Cisco published its VNI forecast (see "Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast Projects 26-Fold Growth in Global Mobile Data Traffic From 2010 to 2015" - here) with tons of information concerning the growth of mobile data. Predicting the future is not easy, as we know, and totaling global traffic is a concept which is not easy to understand - this is why Cisco uses statements like "The updated research projects that annual global mobile data traffic will reach 6.3 exabytes per month, or an annual run rate of 75 exabytes, by 2015. That amount is the equivalent of 19 billion DVDs or 536 quadrillion SMS text messages or 75 times the amount of global Internet Protocol traffic (fixed and mobile) generated in the year 2000".

However facts about the past (i.e. year 2010) are more tangible, and Cisco finds that "Global mobile data traffic increased 159 percent from calendar year 2009 to calendar year 2010 to 237 petabytes per month, or the equivalent of 60 million DVDs" - 2.6X growth is clear even without the DVD illustration.

So I found the following table particularly interesting (taken from "Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2010-2015" - here):

"Although last year’s Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast had projected strong growth in mobile data traffic in 2010 (149 percent), growth was even stronger than anticipated (159 percent). Even more surprising was the strong growth in markets that already had relatively high mobile data adoption and use. For example, last year’s forecast projected 120 percent mobile data traffic growth in Japan in 2010, but we now estimate that the growth was 137 percent. As shown in Table 1, mobile operators and content providers in all regions have continued to report strong traffic growth."

Cisco VNI: Online Video Overpasses P2P; 1% of Users Consume 20% of Traffic

        
More signs for the decrease in the relative share of P2P vs. online video in broadband traffic are reported in Cisco's latest Visual Networking Index (VNI) report - "Peer-to-peer (P2P) file sharing is now 25% of global broadband traffic, down from 38% last year, a decrease of 34%. While still growing in absolute terms, P2P is growing more slowly than visual networking and other advanced applications.. flash, and Internet TV represents 26%" (see table 1 below).

See "Cisco Visual Networking Index: Usage" - here. See previous posts - here.

An interesting chart (below) reinforces the traditional "20-80" assumption on volume consumption. Top 1% of connection consume 20% (!) of traffic, 10% consume 60%.

Cisco - It is All About Video, and Less About P2P

Cisco updated its VNI (Visual Networking Index), forecasting the quadrupling of IP traffic by 2014.

 

Summary here, press release - here.

Among the findings (see previous report "Cisco Mobile Internet Forecast By 2014" - here):

• By 2014, the sum of all forms of video will continue to exceed 91% of global consumer Internet traffic

• Peer to Peer (P2P) isn’t the largest traffic type anymore, and will grow at a CAGR of 16%. By 2014, global P2P traffic will be 17% of global consumer Internet traffic, down from 36% in 2009
    
• Global mobile data traffic will increase 39 times from 2009 to 2014
    
• Bandwidth-hungry HD and 3D video is headed onto the IP pipes

With the tool provided by Cisco, I generated the charts below, showing 2009-2014 global forecast by application, segment (fixed/mobile) and market (consumer/ business). For the latter, business traffic looks insignificant compared to consumer traffic, however the revenues associated with it may be un-proportional to its size.

 

  

Related posts:

• Worldwide Mobile Data Usage has Increased by 72% (According to Allot) - here
• Mobile Mimics Fixed (Sandvine) but Users are up to 22% Less Satisfied (NSN) - here