Juniper Research: OTT Voice to See Significant Revenue Rise (5X by 2020)

TelecomLead reports that "OTT voice providers are expected to generate more than $10 billion in service revenues by 2020, representing a 5-fold increase over the next 5 years. Juniper Research said OTT application providers such as Skype and WhatsApp would experience a significant rise in traffic and revenue potential as 4G network roll-outs accelerate, increasing their capability to offer VoIP (voice over IP) calls.

As most mVoIP services were offered as a free or low cost service, a small minority of OTT players had generated a significant revenues from the service.

Because of sharp decline in voice revenues as a result of OTT voice activity, traditional operators have adopted new business models by offering functionality such as VoLTE (Voice over LTE) and Wi-Fi calling through the mobile handset"

See "OTT voice providers to generate $10 bn revenues by 2020" - here.

[Juniper Research]: How will MNOs Revenues Recover?

A new report by Dr. Holden Windsor [pictured], Head of Consultancy & Forecasting, Juniper Research, finds that "..voice and messaging traffic lost to OTT (Over The Top) players such as WhatsApp, Facebook and Skype will cost network operators $14 billion in revenues globally this year, up by 26% on 2013 ..in a number of markets, including Italy, Spain and the UK, operator mobile voice revenues had fallen to less than 60% of their value five years’ ago. It argued that a combination of IM, VoIP and social media substitution was primarily responsible, resulting not only in lost revenues but in additional costs due to the scale of signalling traffic".

"However, the report also identifies an array of new revenue streams with the potential to deliver cumulative revenues to operators in excess of $66 billion over the next five years. The resulting revenues could more than offset the decline from core service revenues on an annual basis by 2018 .. in areas such as M2M (Machine to Machine) and mobile money, operators can achieve a substantial revenue uplift by focussing on full service provision rather than simple connectivity

• Without optimisation, mobile data delivery costs will increase by more than three times over the next three years
   
• Implementation of NFV  solutions offer operators the potential both of cost savings on proprietary hardware and on reducing product time-to-market
   
• Operators can boost core revenues by introducing higher-value shared data plans or by bundling content into a monthly subscription.

See "Operators to Suffer $14bn in Lost Revenues this Year, as OTTs Take Market Share, Juniper Research Finds" - here.

[Juniper Research] MNOs will Convert OTT into $20B Opportunity

A new report by Anthony Cox, Juniper Research finds that "Mobile network operators will generate revenues of close to $20 billion by 2018 through strategies involving internet based voice or 'carrier OTT' .. These Internet voice revenues will be derived from new service propositions and bundles delivered through partnerships with stand-alone OTT (Over The Top) service providers .. while OTT service providers have been successful in creating impressive user bases of mVoIP customers, many future revenue generating strategies are likely to involve traditional carriers that have a billing relationship with the end-user and guaranteed QoS (Quality of Service)".

The report also "observes that stand-alone mobile VoIP players are becoming increasingly sophisticated in their service offerings and are developing more ways to monetise services. Meanwhile, VoLTE (Voice over LTE) will see widespread adoption among MNOs for the increased network efficiency it affords the operator, even though direct revenues will be low".

See "Mobile Operators to Generate $20bn from Internet Voice as 'Carrier OTT' Matures, Juniper Research Finds" - here.

Juniper Research: MNOs can and will Fight Churn with Analytics (MTN, C Spire)

A new report by Keith Breed, Juniper Research finds that ".. Mobile Operators worldwide are set to gain from a significant reduction in churn through the adoption of Big Data and Analytics techniques, equivalent to an increase in revenues of almost $4bn a year by 2018. The report found that the implementation of analytics platforms was enabling operators to anticipate the likelihood of customers to churn, to take preventative action and thereby reduce revenue loss"

• MTN South Africa, which in 2012 deployed a Big Data programme combining subscriber information and social network analysis to determine priority users and customer networks and subsequently saw annualised churn decline by more than 20 percentage points
   
• .. players in more developed markets – such as C Spire Wireless in the US – were increasingly coupling analytics with a customer loyalty programme to improve user retention.

See also "[Juniper Research]: Analytics May Save MNOs $9B by 2018" - here.

See "Mobile Operators to Gain Almost $4bn by 2018 from Applying Analytics to Reduce Churn: Juniper Research" - here.

[Juniper Research]: Analytics May Save MNOs $9B by 2018

Great savings for MNOs are just around the corner: while SDN will save them $4B by 2017 (here), big-data analytics will do more than twice: $9B.

A new report by Juniper Research finds that "The continued deployment of analytics platforms is expected to deliver combined savings and incremental revenues to MNOs (Mobile Network Operators) totaling more than $9 billion by 2018, .. Greatest savings are expected to result from reduced customer churn and more efficient capex allocation, with MNOs also able to derive significant revenues through the licensing of opted-in subscriber data to third parties".

"Some operators – such as Telefonica [see "Telefonica to Monetize on its Mobile Analytics Data" - here] and Verizon – have established in-house business units to offer aggregated subscriber data to enterprise customers, while in the UK, Everything Everywhere (EE), Telefonica O2 and Vodafone have founded the advertising joint venture Weve".

See "Harvesting ‘Big Data’ Offers Network Operators a $9bn Cost Savings & Revenue Opportunity by 2018: Juniper Report" - here.

[Juniper Research]: "Data Offloading [60% by 2017] is Key, Challenges Still Remain"

A new report by Nitin Bhas (pictured), Juniper Research, forecasts that "..the amount of mobile data traffic generated by Smartphones, Featurephones and Tablets will exceed 90,000 Petabytes by 2017 .. only 40% of the data generated by these devices will reach the cellular network by 2017, as majority of the data traffic will be via the Wi-Fi network .. Data Offloading is Key, Challenges Still Remain ..  despite 2012 being a breakthrough year for 4G LTE, operators will still need offloading technologies such as Wi-Fi & Small cells to augment 4G networks".

"The report identifies a series of trends that are coming together to greatly accelerate carrier-Wi-Fi adoption, mainly NGH (Next Generation Hotspot) and Hotspot 2.0 specifications along with 5GHz enabled devices. Carrier-grade small cells along with Wi-Fi will enable high levels of capacity and along with the macro network will provide commercial and financial success to the operator".

See "Mobile Devices to Generate Data Traffic Equivalent to 42 Quadrillion Tweets by 2017, at Over 90,000 PB" - here.

[Juniper Research]: mVoIP OTT Is Still Ahead - 1B Users by 2017

A new report by Anthony Cox, Juniper Research forecasts that there will be "..over 1 billion users of over the top (OTT) mobile VoIP services by 2017, reflecting a dramatic shift in how voice traffic is carried over the next five years ..  improvements in network technology, increased competition and the move by telcos to join the OTT space will all come together to give the mobile “internet-voice” market a ‘second wind’. However, as with Skype on the desktop, only a very small proportion will pay for the service"

“.. The arrival of 4G will give further impetus to mobile VoIP take-up but potentially accelerate the decline in overall voice revenues.

See "Mobile VoIP Users to Reach 1 Billion by 2017, or One in Seven Mobile Subscribers" - here.

[Juniper Research]: 60% of Mobile Data Offloaded in 5 Years

 
A new report by  Nitin Bhas (pictured), Research Analyst, Juniper Research , has found that "..while the level of data delivered to mobile devices is expected to continue to expand dramatically over the next five years, service providers will offload nearly 60% of traffic in that period .. with WiFi integrated small cells, seamless data services can be extended to non-cellular devices as well, such as cameras and WiFi-only tablets, offering operators the opportunity to develop new revenue streams .. Small cells will account for a steadily increasing proportion of offloaded data over the forecast period, reaching over 12% by 2016"

Related posts:

• Network Capacity Issues - Wi-Fi vs. Small Cells - here
• [Infonetics]: Demand for Data Drives MNOs to Deploy Small Cells; Already Offload 10% - here.
• [Infonetics]: Small Cell Market to Reach $2.1B by 2016 ($700/unit) - here
• [Telesperience]: "Offloading is like a chess gambit – those who do it well could win out" - here
• Offload Deployments: MetroPCS, KDDI, India, AT&T, China Telecom, PCCW.

See "Small Cells and WiFi Solutions to take nearly 60% of Mobile Traffic Over 5 Years" - here and  "Mobile Data Offload & Onload: WiFi & Small Cell Strategies 2012-2016" - here.

[Juniper Research]: 430M LTE Subscribers by 2016; Attracted by speeds and Service Guarantees

  

A new report by Nitin Bhas (pictured), Research Analyst, Juniper Research forecasts "a rapid uptake of LTE mobile broadband technology in the next five years but with a very limited global reach. Subscriber levels will attain 428m by 2016 but will only reach 6% of the global subscriber population .. the total number of LTE base station deployments will reach almost 1 million by 2014 .. LTE smartphones and tablets will dominate the LTE connected end user device market, accounting for 50% of the total LTE subscribers by 2016".

Report author added: ‘With LTE being offered as a premium level service initially, enterprise subscribers will be attracted by the improved data speeds and the service guarantees that will be offered. The emerging factor that will drive consumer take-up later in the forecast and beyond is the embedding of LTE technology in consumer devices.'

Forecasts for the number of LTE subscribers expected in 2015-6 vary among the research companies, but they all show small percentage of the total number of mobile subscribers, that is expected to be at the size of world population (~7B):

• Informa said in November that "By 2016, there will be 100 million LTE subscribers in the US compared to 613 million LTE subscribers worldwide" (Mike Roberts - pictured, here) 

• Infonetics Research said last June that "The number of LTE subscribers is forecast by Infonetics to top 290 million by 2015" (here)
   
• Maravedis said in June that "The number of users on long term evolution (LTE) networks will reach 326 million by 2016" (stoty by ZDNet, here)
   
• Pyramid Research forecasted earlier this year "422 million LTE subscribers in 2015" (here)

Juniper Research press release - "LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers to Reach Almost 430m by 2016 but Will Only Represent 6% of Subscribers Globally" - here; "4G LTE Opportunities" - report page here and whitepaper- here.

See also:

• ABI Research: "LTE adoption will take off more rapidly than expected" - here
• [Infonetics]: Greenfield LTE Deployments Targeting DSL Replacement - here
• [Analysys Mason]: LTE - a Potential Drive for Subscriptions Growth in Europe - here

[Juniper Research]: MNOs Need to Spend $840B By 2016 on Backhaul

   

A new reprot by Nitin Bhas (pictured), Research Analyst, Juniper Research, concludes that "mobile network operators must increase capacity and intelligently optimise their backhaul networks over the next five years if they are to meet the increasing demands of mobile broadband users. According to the new mobile research report, operators need to spend almost $840 billion globally over the next five years in order to address serious bottlenecks in their backhaul networks .. The report found that microwave and fibre will dominate the backhaul market with microwave accounting for over 60% of the global mobile backhaul capacity by 2016".

Obviously, smarter solutions - Network intelligence, optimization, caching and subscriber and application aware QoS policies enforcement should be considered before adding more bandwidth, as they usually present a better ROI.

See " Mobile Network Upgrades of up to $840bn Required Over Next Five Years to Meet Burgeoning Data Demand, Finds Juniper Research" - here.

Juniper Research: By 2015 63% of Mobile Traffic will be Offloaded to a Fixed Connection

 

Follow-up on today's earlier post on mobile offloading. Nitin Bhas, Research Analyst with Juniper Research, published a new research showing that "the majority of traffic (63%) generated by Smartphones, Tablets and Feature Phones will transfer onto the fixed network via Wi-Fi and Femtocells by 2015. This means that the annual mobile data traffic offloaded from operators’ networks via WiFi and Femtocells is forecast to reach nearly 9000 petabytes (PB) by 2015, which equates to a voluminous 11 billion movie downloads"

See "Relief Ahead for Mobile Data Networks as 63% of traffic to Move onto Fixed Networks via WiFi and Femtocells by 2015, finds Juniper Research" - here.

"Although currently WiFi accounts for over 98% of the traffic offloaded, Femtocells will account for a steadily increasing proportion over the forecast period .. Mobile data offloaded via WiFi from operators’ networks expected to reach almost 90% of total data offloaded".

Juniper Research: "VoIP over WiFi will cost operators $5B globally by 2015"

  

A new research from Juniper Research forecasts a dramatic growth in the use on VoIP over 3G and 4G networks: "The number of mobile VoIP minutes carried annually on 3G and 4G networks will rise from 15 billion minutes in 2010 to 470.6 billion by 2015"

See Juniper's press release - here.

Anthony Cox, Senior Analyst at Juniper Research, noting that operators fear losing traffic to WiFi networks most: “WiFi mobile VoIP is potentially the most damaging of all VoIP traffic as it bypasses the mobile networks altogether”

Recently we saw some mobile operators (AT&T, O2 UK) encouraging the use of WiFi, in a response to their cellular capacity problems, while the debate on Net Neutrality and the use of OTT VoIP continues.

See also "Frost & Sullivan: Mobile Operators Should not Impose Bans or Surcharges to VoIP" - here and "Skype Does Good for 3UK" - here.